Saturday, April 2, 2011

Tips Trading Forex

Banyak orang yang berpikir menganalisa forex merupakan suatu hal yang
rumit dan semua penuh dengan segala rumus matematika yang menakutkan
beberapa orang bahkan rela membayar jutaan rupiah untuk mengikuti
kursus-kursus pasar modal yang mempelajari analisa tehnikal dengan
perhitungan grafik yang rumit bahkan memusingkan karena kita sendiri
jadi bingung frame mana yang harus dipilih 1 menit, 5 menit atau Daily?
Sebenarnya jika kita berfikir logis, jernih dan tenang maka akan
terlihat sesuatu yang tidak terlihat karena dikaburkan oleh segala
macam tetek bengek indicator dan rumus yang rumit tersebut. KISS ( Keep
it simple stupid ) sebuah pedoman terbaik yang wajib diterapkan di
segala bidang.

Untuk sukses bertrading Forex ada suatu prinsip dasar yang harus
dipegang .Ingat anda bertrading ini artinya anda berdagang kalau anda
berdagang berfikirlah dengan pola pikir seorang pedagang Beli diharga
murah lalu jual di harga tinggi ini adalah aturan nomor satu yang
paling wajib diperhatikan Tidak peduli apakah anda bermain saham, bursa
komoditi, forex ataupun anda seorang pedagang konvensional, terapkan
selalu prinsip tersebut

Bertrading Forex memang berlangsung 24 jam non stop mulai berjalan dari
market Australia sekitar pukul 04:00 WIB Dini hari lalu berlanjut pada
pembukaan market Jepang mulai pukul 07:00 WIB pagi diteruskan pembukaan
market eropa pada pukul 14:30 WIB sore hari dan diakhiri pada market
Amerika yang buka pada jam 20:30 WIB malam dan ditutup sekitar jam
04:30 WIB dini hari.

Berdasarkan pada pengalaman, peran waktu atau sesi bertrading sangat
berpengaruh pada hasil akhir kita menang atau kalah. Sekilas secara
garis besar harga berjalan datar pada sepanjang pagi sampai sore hari
waktu Indonesia bagian barat. Baru pada sesi market Eropa biasanya
harga mulai menggeliat dan terbentuk dan puncaknya pada sesi market
Amerika .Pada sesi market Amerika ada peluang besar untuk mendapat
keuntungan besar dengan waktu singkat asalkan kita bisa memposisikan
diri secara tepat.

Cara menentukan posisi Buy atau Sell. Setelah memperhatikan fenomena
diatas maka sebaiknya kita bertrading pada waktu sesi market Amerika
saja. Langkah pertama adalah menghitung range harga high-low
masing-masing pairs mata uang pada hari itu. Ada 4 macam mata uang yang
umum diperdagangkan yaitu:

Euro - Usd Range Harian Rata-2x 110-120 poin

GBP - Usd Range Harian Rata-2x 180 - 200 poin

Usd - Chf Range Harian Rata-2x 120 - 130 poin

Usd - Jpy Range Harian Rata-2x 80 - 90 poin

Angka-angka diatas tidaklah mutlak baku tapi paling tidak jika pada
saat kita akan entry dan range sudah sejumlah rata-rata tersebut paling
tidak kita sudah pada jalan yang benar walaupun belum menjamin 100%
kemenangan.

Jika kita perhatikan lebih seksama ada suatu pola tertentu yang saling
berkaitan pada ke empat pasangan mata uang tersebut yaitu mata uang
Euro-Usd dan Gbp Usd biasanya berjalan seiring berbanding terbalik
dengan mata uang Usd-Jpy dan Usd-Chf. Jika mata uang Euro-Usd dan
Gbp-Usd menguat maka biasanya mata Uang Usd-Jpy dan Usd-Chf melemah .
Demikian pula sebaliknya.

Tetapi perlu disimak lebih lanjut hal tersebut tidak selalu berjalan
sesuai kejadian diatas ada kalanya salah satu nya bertahan sedangkan
mata uang yang lainnya mengikuti pola yang sesuai biasanya. Jika
terjadi demikian maka ada kemungkinan salah satu mata uang yang
tertahan pergerakannya tersebut ( mata uang yang berpola tidak seperti
biasanya ) telah berada pada titik terendah atau titik tertinggi harian
dan telah mempunyai range harian yang sudah matang (sudah mendekati
sama dengan atau lebih sedikit dari rata-rata range harian mata uang
tersebut.)

Tidak ada aturan khusus yang menyebutkan bahwa salah satu pasangan mata
uang lebih gampang diperdagangkan semuanya mempunyai peluang yang sama
hanya saja ada baiknya jika kita menyesuaikan dengan kekuatan margin
kita. Pergerakan pasangan mata uang Euro-Usd dan Usd-Jpy lebih stabil
dengan kisaran range yang sekitar 100 poinan hal ini tentu saja menjadi
lebih aman dimainkan dengan modal margin kita yang kecil dibandingkan
dengan pasangan mata uang GBP-USD dan USD-CHF yang berkisar pada angka 200 poinan.

Dari kejadian yang telah saya amati dapat saya ambil kesimpulan bahwa
sebenarnya uang atau modal spekulan kelas kakap seperti George Soros
hanya diputarkan pada 4 pasang mata uang tersebut saja dimana selalu
berusaha menyeimbangkan volume dan harga dari mata uang tersebut supaya
pada akhir penutupan berjalan seimbang sesuai dengan rata-rata range
high ? low harian
Arah pergerakan harga sebenarnya sudah terbaca dari pergerakan harga
masing masing pasangan mata uang tersebut. Masalah pendekatan analisa
secara fundamental dengan mencermati berita-berita ekonomi sebenarnya
sudah tercermin dari pergerakan harga. Saya membaca jadwal kalender
berita ekonomi hanya untuk melihat jam-nya saja misalnya ada pengumuman
tertentu pada jam sekian. Berarti paling tidak mendekati jam tersebut
akan besar kemungkinan terjadi perubahan harga secara ekstrem
Dengan kita mengetahui kira-kira kapan akan adanya pergerakan harga
secara ekstrem paling tidak kita telah berhemat waktu dan tidak perlu
seharian mengamati pergerakan harga di layar monitor. Kecuali kalau hal
tersebut memang merupaka suatu hoby itu tentu saja tidak menjadi
masalah bagi anda.

Bertrading sebaiknya mengikuti keadaan lapangan yang terjadi pada saat
itu. Terlalu beresiko jika kita berusaha memprediksikan bahwa pada
harga sekian akan terjadi bullish / bearish. Saran kedua, tunggu
keadaan dan masuk begitu kesempatan benar-benar telah datang. Kunci
utama lainnya tungguin trading anda sendiri

Bertrading harus disiplin mengikuti system atau pola yang telah kita
tentukan. Keserakahan dapat berakibat fatal saya rasa dengan 1 hari
dapat mengantongi 30 ? 50 point sudah cukup. Banyak kekalahan besar
yang terjadi dari akibat keteledoran yang sepele. Namanya salah
perhitungan pasti pernah terjadi jika hal itu terjadi tidak perlu
sungkan lagi untuk segera cut loss daripada anda semakin terbenam lebih
dalam lagi berpikirlah positif ingat kesempatan baik selalu datang

Setiap hari anda masih bisa mendapatkannya esok hari.

Menentukan entry bisa dilakukan dengan atau tanpa bantuan chart (
Grafik ). Yang menjadi dasar pengambilan keputusan adalah harga
tertinggi atau terendah range harian. Misalkan harga bergerak pada saat
itu mendekati harga tertinggi pada hari itu, tunggulah dulu biasanya
harga bergerak akan terus berusaha menembus harga tertinggi pada hari
itu. Perhatikan range hariannya. Misalnya untuk mata uang Euro-Usd
range hariannya pada saat kita akan entry sudah mencapai 98 point besar
kemungkinan harga tertinggi pada hari itu akan tertembus sampai
beberapa point lagi diatasnya sebelum kemudian akhirnya harga berbalik
arah karena aksi profit taking.

Jika anda tergolong seorang Risk Taker, sebenarnya bisa saja anda
memanfaatkan keuntungan sewaktu terjadi koreksi harga tersebut dan anda
bisa memetik 2 keuntungan sekaligus sewaktu harga terkoreksi naik
sebentar sebelum akhirnya mengalami reversal ( pembalikan harga. ) hal
ini bisa saja dilakukan tetapi saya tidak menyarankan untuk digunakan
oleh pemula jika anda masih merasa belum begitu mengenal situasi pasar
maka sebaiknya anda berlatih dahulu di rekening virtual anda dahulu
sampai anda benar-benar menguasainya.

Dan jangan lupa pula perhatikan juga mata uang yang menjadi lawan mata
uang yang kita pegang tersebut misalnya karena pada contoh kasus ini
kita memegang mata uang Euro-Usd maka perhatikan pula mata uang
lawannya misalnya Usd-Jpy seharusnya pada saat yang sama Usd-Jpy juga
akan berusaha menyentuh titik terendah sebelum pada akhirnya berbalik
arah

Dengan memanfaatkan grafik pun kita bisa memperoleh informasi yang
cukup jelas lagi jika anda pengguna software metatrader, cukup
perhatikan pada time frame 5 menit & 15 menit saja. Indicator
yang digunakan cukup Bollinger bands saja dan jika masih kurang yakin
gunakan indicator tambahan yaitu RSI dengan seting periodenya 6. Tetapi
sekali lagi yang perlu diingat dasar utamanya adalah range harian High
dan Low Jika telah terjadi break High ataupun break low baru anda
perhatikan grafik candle stick anda terutama fokuskan pada frame 5
menit.

Banyak orang yang justru terjebak pada pemfokusan grafik misalnya garis
Ma sudah cross atau sebagainya tetapi sebenarnya pada waktu itu range
harga belum terbentuk secara matang, tentu saja hal tersebut bisa
menjadi sangat riskan. Sekali lagi saya tekankan perlunya anda
memperhatikan range harga yang sudah terbentuk.
Penggunaan garis pivot point support dan resistance pun bisa anda
manfaatkan untuk mempertajam keputusan yang akan diambil. tetapi ingat
sekali lagi patokan range hargalah yang menjadi fokusnya jangan anda
menjadi rancu atau bingung karena segala macam indicator
tersebut.

Misalnya mata uang Euro-Usd sudah menembus break high perhatikan pada
chart 5 menit anda candle stick akan telah menyentuh garis Bollinger
bands bagian atas bahkan mungkin lebih tunggu dahulu sampai benar-benar
telah mencapai puncaknya baru setelah dirasakan adanya gejala reversal
atau pembalikan maka baru anda melakukan entry
Pergerakan harga merupakan suatu hal yang kompleks yang melibatkan
keempat pasangan mata uang tersebut satu sama lainnya. Hal ini tidak
bisa dijelaskan secara detail. Demikian pula penentuan overbought
ataupun oversold tidak mutlak berpedoman pada chart frame 5 menit atau
15 menit hal ini akan anda peroleh sendiri dengan jalan sering berlatih
gunakanlah logika anda maka hal yang luar biasa akan anda dapatkan.
Saya ingin menjelaskan secara tertulis ataupun lisan tapi memang hal
ini tidak bisa dijelaskan begitu saja sama saja seperti saya misalnya
memberitahukan kepada anda harumnya bunga melati. Kita tidak bisa bukan
untuk mendiskripsikan dengan kata-kata atau tulisan jalan satu-satunya
supaya anda tahu ya cium dan rasakan sendiri harumnya. Pelajari
pergerakan ke 4 pasang mata uang tersebut Euro-Usd, Gbp-Usd, Usd-Jpy
dan Usd-Chf disitulah letak kunci jawaban kemenangan anda

Perhatikan contoh berikut
Pada kasus ini anda memperoleh selisih range 190 poin Wow!!
Bertrading bukanlah suatu ilmu pasti 1+1=2 jadi jangan sia-siakan uang
anda untuk kursus-kursus yang menjanjikan keuntungan trading secara
pasti kalau memang kursus tersebut pasti bisa menjamin kesuksesan anda
bertrading ngapain mereka masih sibuk buka usaha kursus bukankah lebih
baik mengurusi trading mereka sendiri
?

Kunci utamanya seringlah berlatih. Segala bacaan atau ilmu dapat anda
peroleh secara gratis lewat googling browsing di internet atau bertukar
pikiran dengan rekan-rekan millis
Trick diatas juga tidak menjanjikan keuntungan yang pasti tetapi paling
tidak dengan menerapkan logika diatas anda sudah berada pada jalur yang
tepat dan anda tidak bertrading secara buta. Anda sudah mendapatkan
dasar dalam pengambilan suatu keputusan. Semoga masukan dari saya bisa
memberi kesuksesan bagi kita semua

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

The Time Tested Trading Rules

There are a few trading rules that have stood the test of time and enable traders to trade profitably, yet a lot of people fail to follow them.

The rules are no secret to anyone as you will find them in many trading books and other materials. The rules like ‘cut your losses’ and ‘follow the trend’ have worked for hundreds of years yet most people ignore them!

Many people have heard of these before however you can never read them too many times. Read them often - print them out and pin them up somewhere. These rules need to implanted into your sub-conscious so you never think about doing anything else.

The following lists some of the most important trading rules.

Cut Your Losses

One of the most important things in achieving success in the long run is that you do everything in your power to ensure that you never let your losses get out of hand. They will devastate you emotionally and your trading capital, and you will violate the primary aim in trading, which is to preserve your capital.

If you were to force successful traders to attribute their success to only one thing, many would select this rule as being the most important thing they do.

Let Your Profits Run

Hand in hand with the first rule is the concept of letting your profits run. You are likely to have a plan that produces profitable trades in less than half of all of your trades, therefore you need to ensure that when you achieve a profit, you obtain the most out of the move in the position.

Some up trends take time to develop and you must see the high in the stock achieved and a reverse in direction, before you consider closing the position. Your few profits must outweigh your potentially many small losses over the long run.

Follow the Trend

In an environment where you will find no friends, the trend may be the only thing that resembles a friend for you. Always trade with the trend! Never attempt to identify the bottom in the stock and time your entry using that approach, as you are likely to be run over as the stock continues on its way down. There are often great forces at work and momentum when a stock is trending in either direction, especially down so don't try to fight it.

Why buy something that is heading in the wrong direction and hope that one day soon it reverses, and starts to head back up past your entry level?

Don't Overtrade

You can easily convince yourself that if you don't trade today, then how can you look at yourself in the mirror and call yourself a trader. Don't trade for the sake of trading and never force the action. If you are not comfortable with any of your potential trades, then don't trade.

It is a mature decision to refrain from opening a position when conditions aren't quite right.

Never Blindly React to a Tip

Who hasn't reacted to a tip they heard from somebody about a stock that is supposedly going to the moon and never coming back? Never react to a tip, as they are rarely any good. What is worst about a tip is if you buy a stock as a result of one, and that stock starts to head against you, you are more inclined to break the rules and not cut your loss because of the 'reliable' information you have heard about the stock's future.

Have confidence in your own plan and never worry about tips of any nature regardless of whom they are from.

Always Trade Liquid Stocks

Liquidity is your ability to trade in a stock without adversely affecting the market price due to insufficient buyers and sellers in the market for that stock. You never want to be stuck with a stock that you need to exit from just because there are insufficient buyers in the market.

It is a horrible feeling of helplessness. Always demand liquidity in your stocks before you consider trading them. Degrees of liquidity will vary from person to person due to different trade sizes.

Keep Positions Small

Your failure to understand and therefore manage risk when trading will severely degrade your chances of long term success. If you want to completely avoid risk, then don't commit any money to any financial market, however for traders, that is not a viable option.

Managing and controlling risk therefore, is crucial and one of the most effective ways of doing this is to ensure you have and adhere to a sound position sizing model. Your position sizing model will ensure that you do not commit too much of your trading capital to a single position, therefore spreading your risk across several positions.

Don't Buy Something Just Because it Looks Cheap

If a stock is cheap, there is probably a very good reason for it. Consider only buying stocks that are trending up and not stocks that look like they might start to trend up any day soon. Even if a stock looks cheap, who is to say it will not get cheaper or ever increase in price again? Don't try to pick the low in a stock - look for stocks that are trending up.

Summary

The bottom line is that humans are naturally inclined to break the time tested trading rules. If this is the case, then those who do succeed trading are totally committed to their trading and are able to focus on the task at hand. They are able to exercise great internal control and discipline.

If you were to isolate the reasons why people do not follow the rules, you would most likely conclude that it is a lack of discipline and involving too much emotion in the decision making process.

The Trading Mindset The Holy Grail

The Holy Grail is often referred to in trading circles as the perfect trading system; the perfect conditions or indicator that will guarantee success in every trade you enter. All traders at some stage undertake the search for the Holy Grail whether it is consciously or subconsciously.

The reality of trading is that there is no such trading system in existence. It never has existed and never will. The fact that some software packages label an indicator the ‘Holy Grail’ only serves to whet the appetite of some people further and arouse their suspicion of what it could be and how they will find it.

It is also widely accepted that your own psychology or mindset is the largest single determinant of your trading success followed by your ability to manage risk. The small remainder of the ingredients to your trading success is your system which includes your entry signal.

When most traders start trading, they spend most of their time on developing their entry conditions. They will learn about various technical indicators, trends and chart patterns, and how they can be interpreted and applied to their trading.

In his book ‘Market Wizards’, Jack Schwager interviews numerous profitable traders in the United States. There is an interesting observation to be made about most of them. Often Schwager asked if they were to start trading again, what would they do differently.

Many answered that they would not have wasted as much time initially on their entry signals and they would have rather spent that time concentrating and developing their risk management rules and working on their own mindset or psychology.

When trading does not go well for most traders though, they begin to wonder what part of their entry conditions is failing them. Thoughts like is it the data they are using, the software, should they use different moving averages like weighted or exponential, or look at hourly data.

It is obvious that entry conditions are a necessary part of any trading plan but their importance is often overrated. Numerous texts have been written about various entry signals yet not enough focus on what is really important to trading.

This may not help the beginner who naturally assumes that their entry signal is the most important part of their trading plan and therefore they shall spend most of their time developing that.

Unfortunately some traders who have looked for the Holy Grail try to lay the blame for their lack of success on external factors. It might be the software they are using or the new entry signal they acquired from reading a book, but at the end of the day they should look no further than themselves.

Successful traders have numerous personal traits in common. They are focussed, disciplined, passionate, and are totally committed to their trading. They are humble and always prepared to learn from their mistakes. The Holy Grail of trading has never existed and never will.

Is there holly Grail Trading System

Seasoned traders will tell you, there is no Holy Grail. I strongly disagree. It's true there is no perfect trading indicator, but there can be a perfect trading tool box. Once you find a set of trading tools (technical indicators) that compliments and enhances your unique trading style and personality, you will have created you own personalized Grail. However, this quest takes time. There are no short cuts.


Trading Wisdom comes with time. It is a combination of Knowledge + Tools + Experience. As your skill and experience increases, your toolbox will change. This is like any craftsman. You start with the trading equivalent of a screwdriver, hammer and nails; read trade journals; and maybe even apprentice under a Master Trader or two or three. Eventually, your skills improve and so does your demand for more sophisticated trading tools.


A trading indicator is no different than any other tool. It is only as good as the person who wields it. Some people need only a screwdriver, a hammer and some nails to get the job done. Others require advanced power tools.


The key to trading success is matching the right trading tools (indicators) to your unique personality and trading style. When these two elements merge, you have the perfect system… or as we like to call it – The Holy Grail tool box.



I wish I could tell you there’s one silver bullet. But, then again, if such a singular solution existed and I had it, we would not be talking. I, instead, would be resting on my yacht next to the island I had just purchased.


Your quest to find the Holy Grail of trading will be no less perilous and rewarding than Arthur’s knights experienced in the pursuit of their grail.

The Search for the Holy Grail Trading System : Part 1 by David Samborsky

Most traders view the Holy Grail of trading systems as one that produces profitable trades 100 percent of the time. However, a trading system that produces profitable trades 100 percent is akin to being able to predict the future movements of the market. Since this is not practical under any circumstances this leads to the following statement which should always be emphasized :-

“Nothing and no one can predict the future movements of the markets.”

If anyone tells you otherwise then they are trying to mislead you. A lot of people using technical analysis often think that it is a substitute for crystal ball gazing. Some traders go to great efforts seeking the Holy Grail of indicators in order to outwit the markets: - I'm sorry to say there are none! However at best we can only talk in terms of probabilities and not absolutes. What we are looking for is a way of giving us a market edge so that the balance of probability is in our favor whether or not we are trading in unfavorable market conditions. This does not mean that we need to be concerned about exactly what trades will be profitable and what ones won't be. As long as the losses are constrained with good money management strategies what we can be assured of is that in the long run we can be trading with a reliably profitable and robust trading system that can be used across a broad market and one that will survive during periods of adverse movements in the market.

For those who are skeptical about using technical analysis to design a profitable trading system or one that works well in all market conditions across a broad market group you may want to reconsider your own philosophies regarding trading system design after reviewing the following trading system. I took an existing trading system out of the Metastock toolbox and modified it. In this case I took the Equis Bollinger Band Expert and modified it by replacing the BBand entry with a random entry strategy, which mimicked the outcome of tossing a coin. For example a trade was taken if you tossed a coin and the outcome was a head. The Equis BBand exit condition was not changed in anyway.

A true portfolio-trading simulator called TradeSim was used to back test the system in order to accurately model actual trading conditions. Metastock was used to generate trade data for the simulator and the simulator used this data to back test the system in a way that matched the way a trader would trade the system in real life according to a fixed set of trading rules and parameters that were not altered throughout the course of trading.

To generate the trade data a special Metastock Exploration was used to generate a trade database from a portfolio of securities that contained the top 200 stocks from the ASX. Note that some securities in the current ASX200 list may not have existed in the past in which case no trade data would have been produced before that time for that particular security. The resulting trade database was generated over a 16-year period starting from 1985 and spanning all of the way to July 2001. In this period over 3500 trading candidates were generated but not all of these trades are taken during any one trading simulation just as would be the case in real life. I also included an initial stop parameter based on the average true range which was used to generate position sizing for the risked based position size model that I used when simulating this trading system. No money management stop was used - the trade exit being totally dependent on the Equis BBand exit trigger. To make the trading system more realistic I included a 40-dollar total transaction cost and redefined the entry and exit triggers so that a trade was entered and exited on the day after the triggers at the worst possible prices in order to model the worst case slippage.

 
Powered by Blogger